O U T L O O K

The new normal
has emerged

Dawn of 'the new normal'. The Avison Young Outlook report series unveils a fundamental transition in the commercial real estate realm across Europe and the UK. The pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and interest rate shifts have triggered a profound reshaping of our industry, affecting all aspects of commercial real estate, from asset adaptation to development funding. Dive into our perspective on how global events, trends and indicators are impacting the real estate market.

Despite a 2023 economic slowdown, Germany’s labour market remains strong, with low unemployment and rising (office) employment, and overall prospects for recovery by 2024-25. The ECB’s interest rate cycle has most likely reached its peak, with the 10-year German Bund yields expected to edge down towards the end of the year and also in 2024. The Big 5 German real estate markets perform strongly in general economic terms, and all of them rank among the global Top 20 cities of Mercer’s Quality of Living Ranking. High living standards attract businesses amid talent competition and remote work trends. Office job growth outpaces other sectors, boosting prime rents and making Germany a prime real estate market. Increases in both, office rents and yields create opportunities for investors.

The picture across Europe

UK

Navigate the evolving UK real estate landscape with us. Explore sustainability, interest rates, shifting workplaces and investment strategies and what this means for specific sectors and locations in this transformative phase.

Germany

Germany is a prime real estate market. Increases in both office rents and yields create great opportunities for investors. In the investment market, price corrections have largely progressed, and banks remain cooperative with ongoing engagements.

France

Despite recent challenges, the French economy remains robust with low unemployment and stable growth. While the property market has faced cyclical downturns, signs of recovery are on the horizon, making it an opportune time for investors.

Poland

Poland's robust economic growth in 2022, driven by expansionary fiscal policies and a thriving labor market, faced challenges in 2023 due to global economic slowdown. Nevertheless, forecasts point towards a rebound in 2024, as inflationary pressures ease and financing conditions improve.