Real Estate Market Report Q1 2023
Economic conditions
Property yield, inflation, swap rate, government bond
*Net initial yield
Source: Avison Young; Federal Bank of Germany; Macrobond. Status: March/April 2023
Meanwhile, the employment situation in Germany remains robust with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 5.7% in March, as in the previous two months, up from 5.4% at the end of last year and up 60 basis points year-on-year (March 2022: 5.1%).
Office take-up versus ifo Employment Barometer
* Top 5 Cities, 12 months rolling; **Index, Base year 2015, 3 quarters ahead
Source: Avison Young, ifo Institute; Status: March/April 2023
Investment market
Commercial real estate investment volume Germany
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Office prime yield
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Germany: office markets
After a lengthy planning phase, tenants and owner-occupiers have been identifying the working model that works best for them, which in most cases includes regular home office work, and ultimately a slightly lower office space requirement. Space which is subsequently deemed surplus to requirement is often offered for subletting. In some cases, this can involve units larger than 10,000 sq m. Medium-sized and large companies are in a position to substantially reduce their office space requirements. However, in the case of smaller companies, the often poor flexibility of the rental space does not provide any scope for downsizing. Increasingly, the proximity to flexible office space providers, either in-house or in the immediate vicinity, is becoming relevant for tenants seeking space. This provides them with a certain degree of flexibility.
Take-up top 4 cities
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Office prime rents and office vacancy rate
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Berlin office market
Q1 2023 | Compared to previous year | Outlook* | |
Take-up (m²) | 140,500 | -17 % | ↓ |
Prime rent (€/m²/Month) | 44.00 | +3.00 € | ↑ |
Average rent (€/m²/Month) | 28.70 | +0.40 € | |
Vacancy rate (%) | 4.0 | +110 bp | ↑ |
* in each case by end of year,
except take-up: compared with previous year
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Take-up, vacancy and prime rent
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Take-up by Top 5 Sector
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Top 5 Deals
Boston Consulting Group (BCG):- 19,200m²
„AP 15“ – Mediaspree
Jobcenter Marzahn-Hellersdorf:- 12,800m²
East
ASML Berlin GmbH:- 10,100m²
„Behrens-Ufer“ – East
PAO Gazprom:- 5,500m²
„the Graph“ – Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg
BIMA:- 5,300m²
Completions
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Rental bands – Berlin q1 2023
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Dusseldorf office market
Q1 2023 | Compared to previous year | Outlook* | |
Take-up (m²) | 54,000 | -24 % | ↓ |
Prime rent (€/m²/Month) | 38.00 | +9.50 € | ↑ |
Average rent (€/m²/Month) | 20.20 | +0.40 € | |
Vacancy rate (%) | 8.8 | +90 bp | ↑ |
* in each case by end of year,
except take-up: compared with previous year
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
This paradox can be explained on the one hand by the highest demands for and low supply of good quality space available at short notice, and on the other, by the high volume of vacant space which, from the perspective of potential users, is often inadequate in terms of its location and/or building attributes. Moreover, there is a short to medium-term tendency to seek to reduce the size of office space occupied and to offer space for subletting that is surplus to requirement. Added to the high volume of space still available and already under construction, this tendency is expected to lead to a significant rise in the overall vacancy rate with the vacancy rate possibly reaching double digits by the end of the year.
Take-up, vacancy and prime rent
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Take-up by Top 5 Sector
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Take-up by size category
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Top 5 Deals
Hengeler Müller:- 9,600m²
„Trinkhaus-Karree“ – CBD
NGK Spark Plug Europe:- 5,600m²
„The Square“ – Ratingen
Ed. Züblin:- 4,200m²
„F101“ – Airport City
SRAM:- 2,000m²
„Plange Mühle“ – Harbour
Blades 1775:- 1,400m²
Kennedydamm
Completions
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Rental bands – Dusseldorf q1 2023
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Frankfurt office market
Q1 2023 | Compared to previous year | Outlook* | |
Take-up (m²) | 85,000 | -21 % | → |
Prime rent (€/m²/Month) | 46.50 | 0.00 € | ↑ |
Average rent (€/m²/Month) | 23.80 | +2.50 € | |
Vacancy rate (%) | 8.4 | +50 bp | ↑ |
* in each case by end of year,
except take-up: compared with previous year
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Take-up, vacancy and prime rent
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
The vacancy rate in the first quarter of 2023 exceeded the 1 million square metre mark for the first time since 2017. Nevertheless, there is still a shortage of top-quality space in the highly sought-after locations. Moreover, very little adequate supply in the pipeline for central locations is expected to come onto the market over at least the next two years. One of the few exceptions is the FOUR skyscraper project. Even if demand for space remains relatively subdued, many Frankfurt companies are not making any concessions when it comes to quality, and so the prime rent, which has remained stable at EUR 46.00/sq m/month since the second quarter of 2022, should rise again by the end of the year to around EUR 48.00/sq m/month.
Top 5 Deals
Universal-Investment-GmbH:- 9,600m²
„Timber Pioneer“ – Europaviertel / Traid Fair
Öffentliche Verwaltung:- 9,100m²
Sossenheim / Rödelheim / Hausen
Massif Central Projektentwicklung:- 5,800m²
„Bethmannhof“ – City
Z.V.E.I:- 4,200m²
Airport
Sanofi-Aventis Deutschland Gmbh:- 3,400m²
Banking District
Completions
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Rental bands – Frankfurt q1 2023
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Hamburg office market
Q1 2023 | Compared to previous year | Outlook* | |
Take-up (m²) | 103,000 | -17 % | → |
Prime rent (€/m²/Month) | 35.00 | +3.00 € | ↑ |
Average rent (€/m²/Month) | 20.90 | +1.70 € | |
Vacancy rate (%) | 3.8 | +10 bp | ↑ |
* in each case by end of year,
except take-up: compared with previous year
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Take-up, vacancy and prime rent
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
At the same time, an increasing number of tenants are considering whether it would be better to secure space now at the current rental levels for as long as possible in view of foreseeable rent rises. This is because prime rents in both the overall market and the individual sought-after submarkets are expected to rise further. Moreover, with vacancy rates remaining stable and very little available space coming onto the market over the next few quarters, landlords are able to minimise or even withhold incentives offered in the relevant properties due to the robust demand and limited alternative space available.
Take-up by Top 5 Sector
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Take-up by size category
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Top 5 Deals
Telefónica Germany GmbH:- 7,000m²
„Tichelhaus“ – City
IU International Hochschule:- 6,800m²
„Zeughaus“ – Eppendorf / Hoheluft
H-Tech:- 6.200 m²
Other
THU Harburg:- 5,010m²
Harburg
Edge Working Places:- 4,200m²
„EDGE“ – HafenCity
Completions
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023
Rental bands - Hamburg q1 2023
Source: Avison Young
Status: March/April 2023